A
contract is reached and you are Declarer
Your LHO leads and Dummy goes down.
At this point you can learn a lot about where the missing honours are and
sometimes a lot about the distribution
The expert can learn a lot more than we mere mortals
probably can in the time available but you can get some clues.
Here are a just a couple of simple examples that should explain the idea.
When the lead isn’t an honour you can be reasonably sure, that if you are
missing two in a suit, King Queen then
either they are both in the opposite hand or they are split.
This is not 100%. West may have decided that leading an honour wasn’t a good
idea but it’s the best you can do until you get any new evidence.
This may be fairly obvious but it explains the principle.
Assume the Defender follows the basic rules of leading.
A small Diamond is lead to a contract of 3 ♥
You are missing the Ace and the King.
Consider whether it is more likely to be from an honour than a singleton.
If the former then it is fairly certain that their Partner has the Ace
You and Dummy have 22 HCP between you and there was no opposition bidding.
Dummy ♠AQxx
♥ Qxxx,
♦ xx
♣ J95
You ♠x
♥ AKJxxx,
♦ Jxx
♣ A108
If LHO held both the Club honours they would have been highly unlikely to underlead the King of Diamonds. From that you can deduce
that either they are split or both with LHO.
The choice is: Do you risk the Spade finesse to discard a Club loser or do you
play the Clubs with this thought in mind. The odds strongly suggest doing just
that.
Another
fairly simple example but one that shows that sometimes you can take away the
“hit and hope “element of the play.
As South you are in 2 ♥
West passed. North opened 1NT and you made a weak takeout into 2 ♥
West leads AK and another Club which you ruff in hand
The full hand is
North ♠Ax
♥ AQxx,
♦ Jx
♣ Jxxx
South ♠Jx
♥ Jxxxx,
♦ Kxxx
♣ Qx
You take the Heart finesse which is successful and the trumps break 3:2. You can’t avoid a Spade loser
so the problem is the Diamonds
If the A ♦
was in West’s hand he surely would have opened the bidding
Take trumps, go to discard one Diamond on the
Jack of Clubs and play a Diamond towards your hand, boldly playing the King if
East plays small.
The odds are 98% certain.
These are just two very
obvious examples.
Many great Bridge players have written books or at least chapters of books on
this subject.
The over-riding principle - When Dummy goes down
look at the lead, look at Dummy and your hand and see if there are any clues.
Often there are not but even a simple top of nothing lead may tell you
something.
As the hand progresses keep in mind what you have learned and add it to new
information as it becomes available.
Main Index